Forecast

Forecast 25 May 2009

Tonight: 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms with a low around 70. Calm winds except localized areas with thunderstorms.

Monday: mostly cloudy with a high in the upper 80s. 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms with winds from the southwest becoming northerly from 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night: 30% chance of rain and thunderstorms ending around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies with a low around 74 and calm winds becoming southerly around 5 mph.

Discussion: Tuesday will be hot and humid with a lower chance of precipitation. Forecasting a weak cold front on Thursday/Friday.

Forecast 24 May 2009

TONIGHT: Low chance of precip through the evening, although clouds will persist. Low of 68F. Winds will steadily be turning from N to NW by tomorrow morning with speeds between 6-9mph.

TOMORROW: Significant chance for rain and possibly heavy rain tomorrow in the afternoon, between noon and 4pm. Rainfall totals around 0.5” can be expected, with extreme rainfall giving up to 1”. Afternoon high of 83F with winds from the NW turning WNW as the day progresses with speeds of 8-11mph.

Marc Taylor

· 2009/05/23 15:23 · Marc Taylor

Forecast 22 May 2009

Tonight: mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low of 69 with E/NE winds between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s with E/NE winds from 5 to 12 mph.

Friday Night: partly cloudy with a 20% chance of shower and thunderstorms. Low of 70 with E/NE winds around 5 to 10 mph.

Discussion: moisture levels on the rise as the low pressure system located in the NE Gulf moves northwest. Surface low is also helping to maintain weak easterly winds. Increased rain chances on Saturday and Sunday due to rising moisture levels and increasing instability. Expect southerly flow to return early next week.

Forecast 21 May 2009

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind around 5 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Discussion

Today is the last day of low heat and humidity. The High is retreating to the northeast, and a Low is moving into the gulf. Models are in disagreement as to where the low is going to end up, and rain this weekend will be dependent on that. Low chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday as moisture moves in from the gulf. Easterly winds. Temperatures increasing as the week goes on.

· 2009/05/20 14:28

OZONE WATCH

TCEQ has issued an ozone watch for the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area for Wednesday, May 20th TCEQ Ozone forecast

Forecast 20 May 2009

Today: Mostly sunny with a high around 86. East wind 5-10mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low around 62. East wind around 5mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high around 88. East winds 5-10mph. A 20 percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a low around 66. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. East winds 5-10mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a high around 88. East to northeast winds 5-10mph. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast Discussion:

With sunny skies and light easterly winds today, high concentrations of ozone look likely this afternoon and evening across the Houston metro area; therefore TECQ has issed an ozone watch for this afternoon.

Our region will see one more day of mostly sunny weather as we remain under the influence of a large ridge of high pressure centered over the central and southern plains. Look for the feature to slowly move east the next several days and allow a deep layer low currently over south Florida to move west-northwest into the eastern and central gulf. This feature will help us hold onto our easterly to at times northeasterly flow regime at the surface.

Models continue to diverge on the eventual evolution and movement of the gulf system, with the GFS keeping the system weaker and moving it toward the central gulf coast; while the ECMWF holds onto a stronger system and moves it into southeast Texas late in the weekend or early next week. At this time, any major impact on our region from this system is still outside of the forecast period so this will allow us more time to watch models and make changes to the forecast if needed.

Matt Haworth

· 2009/05/19 18:17 · 0 Comments
forecast_discussion/home.txt · Last modified: 2009/02/20 11:21 by mtaylor
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